They poked the bear, and polls now show on the eve of the Republican-led effort to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom, California Democrats have woken up.

What was just a month ago considered a toss-up is now a comfortable double-digit lead for Newsom, according to a running average of polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight. But while the GOP’s chances for success in Tuesday’s election appear to be vanishing, there are still some warning signs that Newsom and his supporters shouldn’t ignore, experts say.

So at this 11th hour after weeks of mail-in voting: Is there anything for Newsom to worry about?

Here are five indicators that weigh whether Democrats should fret or Republicans should start thinking about next year.

No. 1: Is GOP enthusiasm enough? 

Republicans have been out to oust Newsom since he first took office, so they are delighted with themselves to have made it this far. And they’ve been counting on their motivated base to finish the job.

But there are clear signs their monopoly on enthusiasm is over.

A July poll from UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) found not only that 95% of GOP likely voters planned to support the recall, but that 87% of Republicans had a high level of interest in the election compared to just 58% of Democrats and 53% of independent voters. New polling released Friday found that 91% of GOP voters have a high interest in voting or have already voted, but the figure has soared to 80% for Democrats and 70% for those with no party preference.

And that could negate the enthusiasm gap the GOP — with only 24% of California’s electorate — has been counting on, even with firebrand conservative radio host Larry Elder’s candidacy picking up steam.

Advantage: Even 

Larry Elder, left, the leading GOP candidate for governor if California Governor Gavin Newsom is recalled on Sept. 14, is introduced by Buck Johns at a rally at his Newport Beach home on Saturday, August 21, 2021. (Photo by Mark Rightmire, Orange County Register/SCNG) 

No. 2: Has the anger toward Newsom faded?

While the push to recall Newsom began before the coronavirus arrived in the Golden State, the governor’s handling of the pandemic in California — from business and school closures to mask mandates — has fueled the effort. So have factors largely outside the governor’s control, like massive wildfires and droughts, and those very much in his control, like his decision to dine with friends at the exclusive French Laundry restaurant in Napa County even as he urged residents to stay home and avoid social gatherings.

In recent days, two pop culture stars of the regulatory resistance — Angela Marsden, a Southern California restaurant owner whose video blasting arbitrary business restrictions went viral, and Erica Kious, owner of a now-shuttered San Francisco salon where House Speaker Nancy Pelosi got her hair done last year in violation of the city’s coronavirus rules — have helped recall proponents remind Californians of Newsom’s pandemic policies and urged a yes vote on the recall.

Mix the visceral dislike of many for the governor with what appeared to be apathy among his supporters, and the recipe looked good for the recall camp. But Democrats have effectively turned the attention from who is sitting in Sacramento to who could be — insert Elder here — to erase the apathy among progressive voters. They’ve branded the effort a Republican Recall, pointed to Texas’ controversial abortion law as a warning, and imported the heaviest hitters from the national stage.

“You’ve got the president coming out here on Monday, so it’s clear they’re not taking anything for granted,” said longtime political strategist Dan Schnur, referring to a Newsom campaign event in Long Beach where President Joe Biden is expected to speak.

Advantage: Even

Pro-recall supporters hold signs as they attend a rally at an Irvine hotel on Saturday, July 31, 2021, for the upcoming California Gubernatorial Recall Election against Governor Gavin Newsom to be held on September 14, 2021. (Photo by Mark Rightmire, Orange County Register/SCNG) 

No. 3: Will Latino voters turn out?

Recent polling from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) found that two-thirds of Latino likely voters oppose the recall, up from earlier polling suggesting the key demographic was more closely divided. But Latinos — who, according to the PPIC, make up 27% of Democratic likely voters compared to just 16% of GOP likely voters — have been relatively slow when it comes to voting early, prompting concern from some Newsom supporters who say the governor needs the support of Latino voters to win. According to Political Data Inc., which tracks voter turnout, only about 21% of Latino voters had returned their ballots by Friday — a lower rate than Black, Asian and White voters.

“I think Democrats will have a serious after-action review about that question,” said Claremont McKenna College politics professor Jack Pitney.

While Newsom’s camp has been making targeted appeals to Latino voters in recent days, some political analysts say it may be too little, too late, pointing out that Latino families have been hit disproportionately hard by both the health and economic consequences of the pandemic. Elder was in San Diego on Friday also courting Latino voters.

For many Latino families, USC professor Manuel Pastor explained, “The last 18 months have been your family being hit hard by COVID, you experiencing a tremendous amount of job loss or wage fluctuation as a result of COVID, and your kids being stuck at home and not being able to go to school. Your life’s been hard.”

Or, said Pitney, a former Republican operative who left the party after former President Donald Trump was elected, “it just could be that Latinos are not as uniformly liberal as Democrats like to think.”

Advantage: Unclear

SAN FRANCISCO, CA. – Aug. 13: California Governor Gavin Newsom begins his statewide, anti-recall campaign, Friday, Aug. 13, 2021, stopping to talk with State Sen. Scott Weiner and others volunteering at a phone bank in San Francisco, Calif. (Karl Mondon/Bay Area News Group) 

No. 4: Do early voting trends stick? 

Many GOP voters have been shying away from mailing in their ballots, with Trump baselessly alleging that mail voting is rife with fraud and Elder already suggesting without evidence that the recall might be subject to “shenanigans.” Democrats have embraced vote-by-mail.

So it’s no surprise that with ballots going out mid-August but many vote centers not opening until just days before the election, early mail returns have leaned Democratic. Many analysts expected Republicans to begin to gain ground as early in-person voting kicked off. But as Political Data Inc. Vice President Paul Mitchell noted recently, “What really is surprising … is just how the turnout for this past weekend, including both mail-in and in-person votes statewide, really didn’t break for Republicans overall – it broke for Democrats.”

Mitchell is also predicting reasonably high voter turnout, which would work in Newsom’s favor given that Democrats outnumber Republicans almost two to one in the Golden State.

“To get Republicans and No votes on the recall to a higher percentage of the total votes cast, they really need low turnout,” he wrote. “That, however, doesn’t appear possible anymore.”

Advantage: Newsom

SAN LEANDRO, CA – SEPTEMBER 8: Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a rally in San Leandro, Calif., on Wednesday, Sept. 8, 2021. Vice President Harris joined Governor Newsom at an anti-recall rally held outside the IBEW-NECA Joint Apprenticeship Training Center. (Anda Chu/Bay Area News Group) 

No. 5: Big money impact

Newsom and his allies have raised more than $70 million to fight the recall effort from a range of donors, far outpacing his challengers. Netflix CEO Reed Hastings, who in the past donated millions to Newsom rival Antonio Villaraigosa, has given $3 million. The California Teachers Association has given nearly $2 million. Building trades and other unions have contributed millions. Dentists, realtors and prison guards have also all contributed.

The haul has paid for a massive voter turnout effort. The campaign has produced ads featuring prominent Democrats like former President Barack Obama and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. But all that money means there are plenty of powerful people and entities, sometimes with conflicting views, banking on a stronger relationship with Newsom — from teachers upset about the way the reopening of schools has gone to Hastings, a vocal charter school backer.

“They’re all hoping for access in places other than the French Laundry,” Pitney said.

Big Advantage: Newsom

Californians can expect to see initial returns shortly after 8 p.m. on Tuesday, with updates as more votes are counted. Newsom’s fate may be sealed that night or it could take time for the race to be called.

“Things can always change at the last minute,” Pitney said, “but all the signs are pointing to a substantial Newsom victory.”